The hottest environmental protection continues to

2022-07-28
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Environmentally sustainable catalysis! How much will the hot rolling market increase

this week, driven by the continuous catalysis of environmental protection and production restriction, the domestic steel market started a soaring mode, in which the billet price broke through 4000 yuan, and the hot coil price also increased significantly, approaching 4400 yuan. According to monitoring: as of August 20, the average price of domestic hot rolled coil was 4382 yuan, up 57 yuan compared with the same period last week and 129 yuan compared with the same period last month

this paper briefly analyzes the recent hot coil Market from the aspects of recent costs, futures, production scheduling, etc., with a view to discussing how much room there is for domestic hot coil prices to rise under the continuous catalysis of environmental protection

1. This week, the new hot coil price of domestic mainstream steel mills was optimistic.

according to incomplete statistics, the shaft sleeve should be removed. This week, several domestic steel mills, such as hesteel, Shougang and Benxi Steel, introduced the new hot coil price policy, of which hesteel significantly increased the factory price by 200 yuan (tax included), Shougang by 50 yuan (tax excluded), and Benxi steel price remained stable (tax excluded). It can be seen that from the rising trend in August and the continuous catalysis of environmental protection and production restriction, the attitude of steel mills is optimistic. From the factory prices of steel mills that have been issued this month, many steel mills have mainly adjusted their prices above

as for the market, the news of environmental protection upgrading in Tangshan was spread again over the weekend: Guofeng equipment was dismantled and furnace stewing was prohibited instead of furnace shutdown. The production of Yutian, Zunhua and Qianxi in Tangshan was limited by 50%. Driven by this news, the price of domestic hot rolls opened on the 13th, and the price rose slightly. With the digestion of environmental protection and the weak domestic economic data, the spot price fluctuated and repaired. On Friday, the market price was booming again. It is rumored that due to Tangshan's air quality ranking at the bottom, or the implementation of peak shift production in advance on September 1, the proportion of limited production of iron and steel enterprises was not less than 50%, and other industrial enterprises expanded the proportion and scope of shutdown. Driven by this news, the price rose again. As the vanguard of the price, the volume rose by more than 200 yuan in two days, and the spot price also rose slightly. As of the 20th, according to the average price of domestic hot-rolled coil, 4382 yuan, up 57 yuan over the same period last week and 129 yuan over the same period last month

2. By the third week of August, the two steel mills had issued the hot coil rolling line maintenance plan. The maintenance information in the past two weeks had entered a blank window period. As of August 20, two mainstream hot-rolled coil steel mills, the first to move in China and TISCO, had issued the maintenance plan with the assistance of the Ministry of commercial energy and industrial strategy (see Table 2 for details), affecting the average daily hot-rolled output of about 20000 tons. This week, we mainly came to Tangshan for an upgraded version of environmental protection and production restriction, as well as the news that Shanxi Province has strictly restricted the travel of large trucks to the end of the year. On Friday, there was a rumor that Tangshan would carry out peak shift production in advance from September 1. According to my understanding, most steel mills have not received the notice of production restriction at present, but some steel mills said that there was indeed a rumor. On the 20th, about 90 environmental protection supervision teams were officially stationed in Fenwei plain, covering 11 cities such as Shaanxi and Henan. In the second half of August, the intensity of environmental protection and production restriction remained unchanged

3. The short-term price of the volume increased by about 100 yuan on the 3rd day or was still excited

this week, the futures price reached a new high due to the continuous catalysis of environmental protection and production restriction, of which the price increased by about 100 yuan on the 3rd day. As of the closing on the 20th, the volume price had exceeded 4300 yuan, a new high in the year. The billet price closed at 4110 yuan on the 20th, breaking the 4000 yuan mark. From the perspective of this week, in the middle of the week, the futures price fell and sorted out due to the weak domestic economic data and the crisis in Turkey. However, with the support of the market on Friday, the price turned from decline to rise again, out of a new high in the year. It can be seen that at present, environmental protection and production restriction are still the leading factor in the rise of futures prices. As of the 20th, the price of main volume 1901 closed at 4324 yuan, up 201 yuan a day, adding 60000 positions a day, and the spot price also increased significantly. The author believes that under the conditions of substantial price increase and substantial position increase of bulls, the current upward channel pattern of the volume has not been broken, and the future price remains strong, or it may reach a new high

4. Tianjin hot coil inventory fell slightly

this week also made it possible for vehicle modular design and rapid trial production. Tianjin hot coil inventory fell slightly. According to statistics, according to statistics, 8 19 the total inventory of main warehouses in Tianjin hot rolling market was 102000 tons, with a decrease of 5000 tons on a weekly basis. It is reported that at present, the steel mills have resumed normal production, and a small number of steel mills have arrived this week. However, due to the high price relative to the Tangshan market, the transaction is light. Steel mills have not delivered much. Local resources are still relatively scarce. Inventory can form a certain support for price. Recently, Tianjin hot coil has fluctuated slightly around 105000 tons. In view of the market situation of Tianjin hot coil, it is expected that the inventory will not change significantly in the near future. Prices are also more likely to be adjusted according to the market. As of August 20, Tianjin hot coil: 3 75*1500 packages, Chenggang 4370 yuan/ton, Tangshan Iron and steel, China Railway, Taiyuan Iron and steel 4360 yuan/ton, manganese Canadian dollar/ton

this week, under the continuous urging of environmental protection and production restriction, the price of domestic hot coil came out of the rising market again. From the news of environmental protection re upgrading in Tangshan: Guofeng equipment was dismantled, furnace stewing was prohibited instead of furnace shutdown, and the production in Yutian, Zunhua and Qianxi of Tangshan was limited by 50%, to the early peak shifting production in Tangshan on September 1, it can be seen that under the background of the trade war, environmental protection and production restriction are still the main logic of price rise. In the futures market, despite the weak macro data and the Turkish Lira crisis, it did not have a great impact on the black system. Under the combined fist of environmental protection and production restriction, the futures market unexpectedly reached a new high this week. On the 20th, the price closed at 4324 yuan, up 183 yuan compared with the same period last week. The author believes that the steel market, which has been in an excited state recently, will still maintain a strong stance in the short term. In terms of demand, although the performance has been tepid, downstream procurement has not released more demand than expected. However, from the recent railway investment of 800billion yuan to the precise financing required by the government this week, it seems that all of them have released positive signals of demand. In addition to the positive expectations for September (at present, the prices of steel mills are mostly slightly increased), the author believes that the hot coil prices can still maintain a strong operating pattern in the coming week. However, experiments such as stretching, bending, bending resistance and tightening are still needed to be completed by replacing the accessories of the experimental machine. We pay attention to the talks on trade war. Whether environmental protection is being promoted again will bring about sudden changes in prices

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