PMI of iron and steel reached a new high in the pa

2022-06-22
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The PMI of iron and steel reached a new high in the past nine months, and the reform on the supply side is heating up

the PMI of iron and steel reached a new high in the past nine months

the reform on the supply side is heating up

China Construction Machinery Information

the thimble will pierce the finished product or strip the ring to crush the finished product. The professional committee of IOT iron and steel logistics released the PMI index of the iron and steel industry on February 1. The PMI index of iron and steel in January continued the recovery momentum of the previous month, rising 6.1 percentage points to 46, It was the highest in the past nine months. However, in fact, the PMI index of the steel industry has been below the 50% boom/bust line for 21 consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity of the steel industry is still in a long-term downturn

from the sub index, the production index of the iron and steel industry in January increased by 7.1 percentage points over the previous month, reaching 45.6%, the highest level in the past five months, but it has been in the contraction range of less than 50% for 17 consecutive months. Previously, according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, China produced 804million tons of crude steel in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, which is the first negative year-on-year growth in domestic crude steel production since 1981

senior researcher qiuyuecheng pointed out that most iron and steel enterprises were still in a loss situation because of unprecedented large losses in 2015, and the shortage of funds would limit the rise of the operating rate of steel plants, and it would be difficult to increase the output of crude steel significantly in the later period. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the total profit of domestic key steel enterprises last year was 64.534 billion yuan, with a loss of 50.5%, compared with 22.589 billion yuan in the previous year

Qiu Yuecheng believes that in the short term, it is difficult for the resource supply of the steel market to return to the normal level, and the tight resource supply will continue. It is expected that the average daily output of domestic crude steel in January will increase compared with the previous month, but the range is limited. According to the data of China Steel Association, in the first ten days of January 2016, the average daily output of crude steel of domestic key steel enterprises was 1.5681 million tons, an increase of 52600 tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 3.47%

the steel PMI sub index also shows that the new order index of the steel industry in January was 49.9%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points over the previous month. The index rose for two consecutive times and reached a new high since July 2014. However, the new order index of the iron and steel industry has been in the contraction range of less than 50% for 19 consecutive months, indicating that under the environment of the continuous deceleration of domestic economic growth, especially the continuous decline of the growth rate of fixed assets, the market terminal demand is still insufficient, and it is difficult to release the strong procurement demand, whether it is real estate construction or industrial manufacturing

among the sub indexes, the finished product inventory index of the iron and steel industry continued to decline to 34.4% in January, down 5.1 percentage points from December last year, hitting a new low since August 2013. This data shows that the current inventory digestion is accelerated, and the "de Stocking" effect of steel mills is obvious, while the domestic steel industry chain inventory is at a low level, which will provide good support for steel prices. According to the data of CISA, the steel inventory of key enterprises was 12.3614 million tons at the end of the first ten days of January, the lowest level since the middle of January 2014, a decrease of 9.36% compared with the end of the first ten days of January 2015

Qiu Yuecheng said that the current supply and demand pattern of the domestic steel market has begun. It uses non-contact technology to monitor the positive changes in the displacement of the moving magnet. In particular, the current inventory of the industrial chain is at a low level. The acceleration of steel capacity reduction brought about by the supply side reform is conducive to improving market expectations, and the positive factors for the recovery of the steel market are increasing. However, at present, the pressure of domestic economic slowdown is still heavy, especially the terminal industries related to steel demand show no signs of improvement, and the sluggish demand will restrict the room for steel prices to rise

data show that since the end of last year, the "supply side reform" of the iron and steel industry has been heating up. At the special meeting of the State Council on January 20, Premier Li Keqiang said that to resolve excess capacity, we should take the lead in starting with the steel and coal industry; On January 22, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which once again studied the solution of excess capacity in the iron, steel and coal industry, and issued the principle, path and guarantee policy of capacity reduction. He stressed that on the basis of eliminating more than 90 million tons of backward iron and steel capacity in recent years, the crude steel capacity should be reduced by 100million to 150million tons, and the coal capacity should be greatly reduced

Qiu Yuecheng said that although the domestic economy is facing great pressure and the terminal demand is still depressed, the positive signals have given the market some confidence. In particular, if the supply side reform can be truly implemented, it will be really good for the steel market

it was learned at the meeting that at present, China's crude steel production capacity is about 1.2 billion tons. According to the production in 2015, the capacity utilization rate is less than 67%. Due to the development inertia and the gradual release of new capacity in the early stage, the capacity may still be further increased. CISA said a few days ago that resolving overcapacity is the primary task and battle for the iron and steel industry to extricate itself from difficulties, adjust, transform and upgrade. At present, policies and measures for resolving overcapacity in the iron and steel industry are being formulated

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