PMI recovered strongly in August, with some worrie

2022-06-22
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In August, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry hit a new high in the year. This is a qualitative change in China's manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry has changed from a recession to a boom, and the trend of economic stabilization has been further established

yufenghui, the daily economic commentator, analyzed that according to the data in August, the internal and external environment for the recovery of China's manufacturing industry is improving. The new order index rose to 52.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that enterprises' production enthusiasm was high, demand began to recover, and the weak economic power began to improve. The index of new export orders jumped to 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to above the critical point, indicating that external demand began to improve. The dual drive of internal and external demand is an important reason for the good PMI index in August

according to the article, the manufacturing industry is the most fundamental entity enterprise in economic activities. The accelerated recovery of the manufacturing industry shows that the economy is fundamentally starting to improve. This is due to the effectiveness of a series of measures to stabilize growth. However, in the face of surprises, we still need to be calm and rational. In August, the PMI increased significantly. There are worries in the joy:

first of all, according to the size of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.8%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 49.6%, and that of small enterprises was 49.2%. In August, the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was still below the boom and bust line, and the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was the same as that of the previous month, with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points for small enterprises. It shows that large investment enterprises dominate the PMI trend, while the recovery of the most active small and medium-sized enterprises in the economy is still weak

second, although the new export order index reflecting the foreign trade situation of the manufacturing industry was 50.2% when the official anti two clamps separated at a fixed speed and stretched the sample, the HSBC initial value in August showed that the export order index fell from 47.7 in July to 46.5 in August. The gap between HSBC and the official shows that the improvement of exports is controversial and variable, and the fundamental improvement needs to be observed. Therefore, we must maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and curb the continued unilateral and uncontrolled appreciation. In any case, the export cart cannot stop, which requires the central bank to control and adjust the exchange rate

third, the purchase price index in PMI in August was 53.2%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous month when trying to seek broader international cooperation. This sharp rise indicates that the prices of raw materials produced by enterprises are rising sharply, which will greatly increase the production costs of enterprises and is very detrimental to the overall recovery of enterprises. We must curb the excessive rise in raw material prices of enterprises. Otherwise, it will not only affect the recovery of enterprises, but also bury hidden dangers for inflation

finally, the recovery of manufacturing industry still depends on policy stimulus and investment, and the efficiency of production factors such as labor, resource and energy utilization, technological innovation and creation has not been effectively improved. This recovery will not last long. It is the fundamental long-term plan to seize the opportunity and improve the efficiency of all production factors in an all-round way

the article emphasizes that it should be noted that this round of investment must be dominated by private capital, and the macro policy should introduce policies and measures to activate private capital investment. At the same time, we must prevent this round of investment from continuing to turn into real estate. Otherwise, it will not only be a problem of high house prices, but also boost the economic and financial foam to continue to be blown up. In this regard, it is necessary to have sober automatic calculation and printing reports, which are widely used in the construction industry and cement production enterprises

at the end of the article, it is said that there are worries in the strong recovery of PMI in August. We must not forget our worries because of happiness. Only by solving the worries can China's economy fundamentally embark on the road of comprehensive recovery

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