PMI shows that China's economy is expected to show

2022-06-22
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PMI shows that China's economy is expected to show a trend recovery in the fourth quarter

pmi shows that China's economy is expected to show a trend recovery in the fourth quarter

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: according to the data released on the 1st by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and has recovered for the first time since May this year. The HSBC China manufacturing PMI data in September just released earlier showed that it was 47.9%

according to the data released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing and the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics on the 1st, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry in September was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, the first rebound since May this year. The HSBC China manufacturing PMI data just released in September showed that it was 47.9%, also slightly higher than the 47.6% in August

although the two data are still below the 50% dry and prosperous line, they both rebounded in September, indicating that China's economic operation has gradually bottomed out and stabilized, laying a good foundation for stable economic growth in the fourth quarter

the signs of economic bottoming and stabilization tend to be obvious

according to the investigation of purchasing managers in China who made continuous efforts to realize the continuous growth of business in Greater China in September, zhangliqun, macroeconomic researcher of the development research center of the State Council, believes that the signs of economic bottoming and stabilization tend to be obvious. On the whole, the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change, and it is expected that the future economic growth will increase slightly in a stable manner

however, according to Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, the rebound of PMI in September may be more caused by seasonal factors

historical data show that PMI tends to rebound in September driven by new orders and the upward trend of production index. From 2005 to 2011, there was no exception, with an average increase of 2 percentage points. However, the rebound of PMI in 2009 and 2011 was small, both 0.3 percentage points; Even in september2008 before the outbreak of the financial crisis, PMI rebounded by 2.8 percentage points to 51.2%

Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, said that there were indeed seasonal factors in the rebound of PMI in September, but the signs of economic stabilization were also obvious. A number of positive factors are gradually taking shape, laying a good foundation for steady growth in the fourth quarter

Quhongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, believes that the growth of China's manufacturing industry is likely to be bottoming out

extensive use of domestic and foreign demand improvement in scientific research institutions, colleges and universities, building materials, aerospace and other industries will increase corporate profits

from the 11 sub indicators of PMI published by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, only the finished product inventory index, employee index and supplier distribution time index decreased slightly, and the rest increased to varying degrees

among them, the new order index, the new export order index, the raw material inventory index and other major leading indexes have rebounded significantly, all exceeding 1 percentage point, indicating that the domestic and foreign demand has improved significantly

in particular, export stabilization and de stocking are coming to an end, further strengthening the economic growth momentum. "The new export order index rose sharply by 2.2 percentage points, indicating that the downturn of the sharp decline in foreign demand in the future will be reversed." Caijin said

Gao Ting, chief China strategist of UBS wealth management research department, believes that the situation in Europe will not continue to deteriorate, which will support China's exports, and the introduction of us qe3 will further benefit China's export situation. "As long as the global economy continues to grow weakly rather than continue to deteriorate, we don't have to worry about a sharp decline in China's exports on the basis of the current weakness."

as for the problem of de stocking squeezing enterprise profits, which has been worried for a long time, many experts believe that it is coming to an end. The low production value is the valley value, and the inventory index of finished products has been lower than 50% for three consecutive months, making room for enterprise production and supply

according to Louis Gogh, chief economist of RBS China, once the inventory is absorbed, the inventory dynamics will eventually reverse, thus driving the profit growth to turn better. But overall, there will be no sharp rebound in earnings growth

the economy is expected to show a trend recovery in the fourth quarter.

Zhang Liqun pointed out that the new order index picked up, reflecting the stabilization of the growth of domestic investment and consumer demand; The index of new export orders rebounded, indicating that exports began to recover; The inventory index of finished products continued to decline, and the raw material purchase index rebounded, indicating that the de stocking activities of enterprises were basically over; The recovery of production index indicates that the production of enterprises has begun to recover due to the increase of orders

"generally speaking, the third quarter is the bottom of China's economy, and the future growth will gradually improve at this level." Zhangliqun believes that under this background, the annual economic growth rate is expected to remain between 7.5% and 8%

Cai Jin also stressed that the formation of this series of positive factors has further promoted the stabilization and recovery of the economy. Although there may be some variables in the future economic performance, the stabilization and recovery of the economy in the fourth quarter is a trend

in addition, the low economic data base in the fourth quarter of last year also laid a foundation for economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year

however, it is worth noting that under the still weak economic situation, enterprises of different sizes are clearly differentiated, and small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing survival difficulties. According to the data, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to above the critical point; However, the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises were 49.8% and 46.7% respectively, which was still lower than 50% and decreased by 0.1% and 1% respectively compared with the previous month

in this case, many experts suggest that fiscal and tax policies can play a greater role in the future than monetary policies. Only by helping enterprises reduce their burdens can they further activate their enthusiasm

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