PMI's downward trend is hard to shake the macro po

2022-06-21
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All indicators of PMI downward difficult to shake the macro policy orientation are now falling

pmi downward difficult to shake the macro policy orientation are now falling

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: according to the data recently released by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the PMI of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index in May was 52.0%, down 0.9% month on month, a new low in the past nine months. Although the index continues to fall back, it still remains at more than 50%. However, from the perspective of trend, except for the short rebound in March this year

according to the data recently released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the PMI of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index was 52.0% in May, down 0.9 percentage points month on month, a new low in the past nine months. Although the index continued to fall, it still remained at more than 50%. However, from the perspective of trend, it has continued to fall slightly since this year, except for a short rebound in March, which shows that the economic growth showed a steady downward trend. Insiders believe that this shows that the macro-control policy has achieved positive results

all indicators are now falling

pmi is one of the internationally accepted macroeconomic monitoring indicator systems, which is weighted by five diffusion indexes, namely new order index, production index, employee index, supplier delivery time index and raw material inventory index. It plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. Generally, 50% is taken as the dividing point of economic strength. If the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of the manufacturing industry. If it is lower than 50%, it reflects the economic recession of the manufacturing industry

according to the data released on the same day, all sub indexes of PMI fell in May to varying degrees, of which the size index of newly ordered and measured output in May was 52.1%, 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The production index was 54.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The import index was 50.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The new export order index was 51.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The employee index was 50.9%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; The purchase price index was 60.3%, down 5.9 percentage points from the previous month

according to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in May, zhangliqun, a special analyst of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, said: "after April, the PMI index continued to fall in May, reflecting the increased possibility of economic growth. In particular, the purchase price index decreased significantly, indicating that inflation expectations may change and destocking activities may increase, which will slow down economic growth."

order inventory reduced pmi

among various indicators, the decline of order index had the greatest impact on the overall PMI in May. The new order index fell to 52.1% in May from 53.8% in April, which is the main reason for the decline of the overall PMI. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries such as petroleum processing and coking, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing account for more than 50%; The metal products industry, special equipment manufacturing and other seven industries accounted for less than 50%. From the regional point of view, the eastern and central regions are higher than 50%; Lower than 50% in the west, 48.5%. In terms of product types, enterprises in the categories of raw materials and energy, intermediate products and consumer goods are more than 50%; Less than 50% of enterprises of finished products for production. The decline of 500 (1) 000mm 2 orders in May conforms to the seasonal fluctuation law in history. Seasonal reasons are the main reasons for the decline of orders in May. Other factors include the inventory adjustment of enterprises, which leads to 1 It is better to purchase experimental machines with a capacity of more than 500J. The drop in demand has also lowered the order index

the decline of inventory index also indicates that the economy has begun to "destock". The raw material inventory index and finished product inventory index in May were lower than those in April. Considering that the current enterprise has a large inventory, it indicates that the economy has begun or is about to enter the "de inventory" stage. The trigger of "de Stocking" may be the adjustment of commodity prices. A new round of adjustment of international commodity prices occurred in May, driving the purchase price index in PMI to drop to 60.3% from 66.2% in April. The future price trend will largely determine the degree and duration of "de Stocking"

it is difficult to turn around the policy direction in the short term

although the downward trend of the economy has been set, it is still difficult for the domestic inflation pressure to subside. In addition, it is difficult to alleviate the severe drought and power shortage in many provinces and cities in the south in a short time. There is a great possibility that prices will continue to rise near the middle of the year. At present, the market is still very strong in the expectation that the domestic inflation level will reach a new high in the second quarter of the year, so the continued decline of PMI will not affect the policy direction in a short time, However, it is expected that the policy will be more cautious and the frequency will converge

Zhang Lei, macroeconomic analyst of Minsheng securities, believes that it is more likely that the macro policy will continue to maintain the status quo. "Considering the lagging effect of the policy, the tightening effect of the existing policy is still continuing, and the tightening of the currency has led to production difficulties at the enterprise level. It is expected that the existing policy does not have the conditions to continue to increase, but it is difficult to relax in the short term."

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, also believes that the CPI increase in May may may reach a new high in the past two years, even if it continues to rise in June and July. The current monetary policy will still focus on "curbing inflation"

"the economy is declining rapidly and still faces a certain callback risk. The key to current macro-control is how the management can take measures to alleviate inflation pressure without aggravating economic fluctuations and avoiding too much harm to the real economy." Zhoumingjian, director of Guosheng Securities Research Institute, said: "it is expected that the tightening policy will not withdraw for the time being, but the government should consider structural fine-tuning and increase the policy of supporting small and medium-sized enterprises to avoid great harm to the real economy."

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